Seltzr Guy Six-Pack: Week 1
Updated: Sep 3, 2025
Everyone wants to be the guy to develop a tried and true method to consistently winning bets wagered on Football. There are so many content creators out there that strive to find the edge in all areas of the industry, but ultimately it is all chance. Pursuing the math component is the sharpest way to find consistency in this industry if that is your desire.
There are a few approaches you might want to take to learning, but the two simplest ways I’d narrow it down to is this: play it safe and bet on higher probability outcomes or play it riskier on lower probability bets that yield higher profits. I think it might be fun to focus on a few categories of bets and to track them each week allowing you, the reader, to follow along! Each week this season, my goal is to share a bet that I like for each category listed below. As I document my wagers, I hope to eventually build a database to track any trends I might find are helpful.
Enjoy the first edition of the Seltzr Guy Six-Packs!
1) ML - Money line
Basically, this is just picking the winner of the game. This week every team is starting the season fresh and this comes with some uncertainty as to whether they can be the same, worse, or better than the last time we watched them play meaningful football. You may call me biased, but I think that a good pick this week is the Falcons ML at +115 odds.
They are at home, kept the entire coaching staff at important positions intact, and play a Tampa Bay offense that is without their best offensive tackle and second best wide receiver. The Falcons and Bucs have had some very high scoring and electric games over the last two seasons. However, Mercedes Benz Stadium will be the loudest it has been in years. Perhaps a new chapter is beginning in the NFC South? 👀
2) O/U - Over / Under
This type of bet is about the total points scored in the game. This one feels like it should be easy to notice trends, but any given week you can have a dud of a game where the cumulative points dont even total 40. I won’t get into all the factors that implicate if the scores could be higher or lower, but there’s a lot of data out there to study if you wish.
The Panthers vs Jaguars game O/U is currently set at 46.5 points. Bryce Young looked more comfortable at the end of last season with the team averaging 28 points per game in the final three games. In comes Liam Coen for the Jags who helped the Bucs score the fourth most points last season. This game is also in Jacksonville, so I believe there will be a lot of scoring. Take the over for this matchup at 46.5 points!
3) Point Spread
This betting category basically tells you what the betting market thinks of the winning team. This is another common form of betting that is worth taking some time to study the various data points and understand what certain numbers mean.
If you think a team is going to win big, than the sports books will put that team as a heavy favorite. This week, I will be betting on the Commanders to win by 7+ points or in other words they will cover the spread of -6.5. They will be at home hosting the New York Giants who have another QB starting another season. Washington had a super efficient offense in 2024 and will be bringing back every single player at the skill positions. I really think that they pick up right where they left off by starting the scoring early and putting the game away quickly.
4) Receptions
Pretty self explanatory. This type of bet is how many receptions a player will have in the game. Your stereotypical wide receivers will likely have very high probabilities for over 6-8 catches, so I don’t usually look at those. Tight Ends or Running Backs receptions can be riskier, but have more profitable odds and can hit rather quickly if the game script were to flip on game day.
Without further ado, I believe that we see a big increase in targets for Marvin Harrison Jr. will get a lot more attention from Kyler Murray to start the year. I think he will have more than five catches, thus I will be placing a wager for Marvin to achieve 5+ catches at -112 odds.
5) Anytime Touchdown Bet
These bets are alwasy the riskiest due to the fact that you only win the bet if they literally cross the line into the end zone. Running Backs are mainly priced to be the most likely to do so. However, I’d like to start the season off with a solid bet to get our feet wet in the win column.
I’m going to pick the reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles QB, Jalen Hurts, to find the end zone week one. His implied odds are pretty high to achieve this accomplishment at -179. Thanks to the ‘Tush Push’ play that is now infamous, he has a better chance of getting a touchdown each week than anyone else in the NFL. I think he will get the week started for my Seltzr Guy Six-Pack on Thursday!
6) Passing TDs
This is a QB only wager type (obviously). It is fun to wager on this due to the volatile nature of the NFL. You think that that the best quarterbacks are always going to be able to toss two plus TDs a game, but there is a lot of risk especially if they are efficient as a runner. In the Bills vs Ravens game on Sunday night, it looks like the winner is a toss up - both teams are at at even odds to win. I think Lamar reminds everyone that he could have easily won the MVP last season and hits that threshold of two touchdown passes at -145 odds before the first half is over. If it hits in the second half of the game, that’s fine too!
Thanks for tagging along on this venture! FOOTBALL IS BACK!
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