Seltzr Guy Six-Pack: Week 3

I didn’t do quite as well as I did last week. Only hit about 33% of the Six Pack in week two (2/6). It’s really hard to avoid betting on the Falcons since I spend so much time observing and calculating how they will perform each week. The defense they showed on Sunday was contrary to everything I expected, but I’ll always take a Falcons win in real life over winning bets or fantasy games.

You’re not hear to read about the Falcons - probably - so let’s get to my favorite bets of the week! Just a heads up, after Week 4 I’ll do a quarter season update and provide some trackable data points to evaluate our Seltzr Guy Six-Packs!

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1) ML - Money line

Jayden Daniels is out this week due to knee soreness, so we will see some Marcus Mariota for the Commanders. He notably played for the Raiders in recent years so this will be a familiar matchup. I think Maxx Crosby will wreck havoc with a few sacks that will pave the way for a Las Vegas victory. I will be taking the Raiders money line vs the Commanders at +150 odds.

2) O/U - Over / Under

The Seattle Seahawks might be finally hitting their stride on offense. JSN and Cooper Kupp looked fantastic last week in Pittsburgh. I think we see this offense really enjoy being back home where the 12s are able to impact the game. JSN has not yet scored a touchdown this season, so I believe we see him get into the end zone. The Hawks will run up the score on the hapless Saints hitting the Over on 41.5 points at -120 odds. It also could be looked at as a ‘revenge’ game for Seahawks offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, who was not retained by the Saints last season after helping manage their offense to the tune of 70+ points through the first two weeks.

3) Point Spread

I am going to do my best to not put the Falcons in here against the Panthers. Instead, I’ll look across the division and take the Bucs covering the spread of -6.5 at -120 over the New York Jets in Tampa Bay, FL. I don’t love that Baker Mayfield has turned out to be a top 10 quarterback in the league, but he really does have this team firing on all cylinders. They are wearing their creamsicle orange throwback jerseys on Sunday; it’s going to add so much more juice to their home opener in front of an extremely optimistic crowd.

4) Receptions

Here is my Falcons bet of the week. Bijan put the team on his back in Minnesota, so the passing game wasn’t as needed as it was in Week 1. However, London had a couple catches for nearly fifty yards, yet he unfortunately had the ball punched out of his hands after a stiff arm maneuver. I think he is ready to make up for that fumble in a big way next week against the Panthers. In his last matchup to end 2024, London enjoyed 10 catches or 187 yards and 2 touchdowns on 18 targets! Granted, the Falcons defense appears MUCH improved compared to that woeful showing in January, so it likely won’t be a shootout again. Nonetheless, I think Michael Penix will pepper him with at least twelve targets this game; I’m taking London over 6+ catches with -119 odds.

5) Anytime Touchdown Bet

Who was the second overall pick in the draft this year? Oh yeah, Travis Hunter. He has been awfully quiet on the offensive side of the ball so far this season. He played a lot more defensive snaps in week two covering Tee Higgins of the Bengals. Brian Thomas Jr. aparently has a hand injury per Liam Coen, so I think that we finally see Hunter’s first NFL touchdown at +195 odds. I believe he will showcase his after the catch abilities when he does hit pay dirt.

6) Passing TDs

Passing TD’s are a hard bet to project, but I think the Chiefs and Giants game on Sunday Night Football might be a fun one to watch. Sure, the Chiefs are not putting up a lot of points these days, but Pat Mahomes will find a way to get points on the board. I believe Xavier Worthy will be back in the lineup allowing for them to open up passing lanes down the field. I like him to throw 2+ TDs at -120 odds this week at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.