Seltzr Guy Six-Pack: Week 4
Disclaimer
I am posting this after all of the Sunday games have wrapped up, but these were my thoughts on the games / bets before they occurred. I wasn’t able to get the blog up on Thursday as I usually do. Nonetheless please enjoy the quick read!
Well so far my six packs have gotten worse each week, but I think we can turn it around here. The six-pack hit rate was only 17% in Week 3. Sports betting can be very hot and cold, so there’s potential to hit some low points before there are any high ones. For example, the Bucs were going to cover the -6.5 spread, but then a blocked field goal at the very end of the game turned into a Jets TD. That game ended up Tampa 29, New York 27. Same with the Mahomes 2+ TD passes bet: he had Thornton deep downfield for a second TD, but he was tackled at the two yard line with a Kareem hunt TD on the next play. These bets have come pretty close, but that doesn’t count in betting!
Just a heads up, after Week 4 I’ll do a quarter season update and provide some trackable data points to evaluate our Seltzr Guy Six-Packs!
1) ML - Money line
I think that the Bears will continue their offensive outbreak and it will be too much for the Vegas Raiders. However, it is a big home game as the Raiders hope to avoid starting 1-3. I predict that Maxx Crosby will get to Caleb Williams a couple times in this exciting battle. I’ll be taking the Bears to walk away with the win at +102 odds. As an underdog, I think there is definitely some value in rolling with Chicago!
2) O/U - Over / Under
For the O/U this week, I think that the Eagles and Bucs game will hit the over 44.5 points at -111 odds; it is showing all th signs of a shoot out.The Eagles passing offense woke up last week in a come back win. The Bucs defense has not been very good at holding back offenses from moving the ball which indicates we might see the Eagles offense enjoy a nice day. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield is the comeback king, so even if the game is close, I predict he will get them more points in the fourth quarter. Feels like easy money.
3) Point Spread
In this category, I’m picking the Chargers to cover the spread at -6.5 points at -105 odds. Won’t go into great detail, but the undefeated Chargers are playing a rookie QB in his first start. The odds are always against players in their debut start at quarterback. I hope Dart does well as I am a fan of him, but this game should be all Chargers.
4) Receptions
I’ll be sticking in the NFC South for this pick. Tet McMillan is clearly the X-Receiver for the Panthers based on the volume of targets he has averaged over the first few weeks of the season. If the Panthers hope to stay in this game at all, they will need to be throwing the ball. They find themselves behind in almost every game (ignoring last week of course), so I think this should easily cash. I believe he will get 5+ catches at -149 odds.
5) Anytime Touchdown Bet
Puka Nacua is making a case to be the offensive player of the year. He is on pace for over 150 catches and 1600 receiving yards, but has yet to get into pay dirt. This matchup with the Colts has huge stakes for both teams which should keep the Rams offensive scheme driving downt the field to score or possibly attempt to come back. I’ll be betting an anytime TD (rushing or receiving) for Puka at -120 odds.
6) Passing TDS
Denver is coming off of a tough loss to their division rival and have the opportunity to host a sinking team in the Bengals. I really do expect the Broncos defense to dominate this game and with the help of a much more efficient offense behind Nix’s two TD passes will coast to victory. I’m taking Nix 2+ passing TDs at -111 odds for this category in Week 4.
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