Seltzr Guy Six-Pack: Week 5
Man, a month of the NFL season has already flown by. I’m not doing too bad overall on my Six-Packs, but I continue to strive for that perfect week of 6/6. Overall my betting success rate is 46%. Not too shabby!
With some teams on the Bye Week already, I found myself looking at players I normally wouldn’t bet on for this exercise. It will be fun to see how they do and whether or not I will be coming back to pick them again in the future or if they tank my recent week’s success. Thanks for picking up the Week 5 edition and reading!
1) ML - Money line
Last week, I went with the underdog Bears playing on the road in Las Vegas. It came down to the wire, but nonetheless, the bet cashed. I think I am going to go back to that well by picking the Giants over the Saints in New Orleans. Jaxon Dart looked pretty comfortable in his first start which makes me confident he can replicate that success this week. The Saints are one of the worst teams in the NFL facing a very formidable defensive line. Abdul Carter has also been a force to start his rookie year. I see this probably being a low scoring game, but I do like New York to get the win with defense. Grab the Giants ML at +110.
2) O/U - Over / Under
The Chargers undefeated season was popped by a Dart last week (See what I did there?). They will be ready to get back on track against the Commanders defense that allowed 34 points to my Falcons last weekend. The O/U projection is at 48.5 at the moment. Typically, projecting near fifty points total is a stay away type of bet, but I really think this game could yield a lot of scoring with Jayden Daniel’s returning to the starting lineup. For the O/U Seltzr Pack, I’ll be picking up the Over on 48.5 for this Chargers and Commanders matchup.
3) Point Spread
It’s not typically advised to take point spreads that are 10+ points for the favorite. However, the Lions offense has been on another level this season scoring over 34 points each of the last three weeks. Meanwhile, the offense for the Bengals has been porous since Joe Burrow went down. This smells like an absolute blowout where we might even see reports that the head coach’s job could be on the hot seat; the team appeared to seem disinterested on the sideline of their Monday night 28-3 loss to Denver. I’ll be taking the spread for the Lions at -10.5 with -109 odds.
4) Receptions
Well, unfortunately, this bet has come SO close several times to hitting this year. I was on the right track as London and McMillan both had the targets necessary to hit their overs on receptions when I bet them. However, they both only caught 50% of their 8 and 9 targets in those games, respectively. I’ll be pivoting away from the wide receiver position this week and going with 3+ receptions for rookie running back Cam Skattebo of the New York Giants. I think there is good value here at +105. He is the full time starter and should easily surpass this total in a tight matchup. Cam had 25 carries and 2 targets in the Chargers game. I am very confident that regresses to possibly 18+carries and 4+targets.
5) Anytime Touchdown Bet
This feels like a lock, but he is literally the last playmaker on this team. Christian McCaffrey has surprisingly been the only healthy skill position player on the 49ers this season. They have a short week against the Rams on Thursday Night Football and are serious underdogs with Purdy, Jennings, and Pearsall ruled out. In Mac Jones previous start this season, CMC was targeted a lot in the passing game which increases the potential to score. Worth noting he has scored against the Rams everytime he has played against them in his career. I’ll be betting an anytime TD for CMC at -119 odds tonight.
6) Passing TDS
I’m feeling the bye week blues as several of my bets are on rookies. I believe we are seeing the real transition from rookies “earning” their playing time to being trusted with the responsibility to start and compete. Cam Ward said that the Titans are not where they want to be, albeit in some more inappropriate language after thier loss on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Cardinals didn’t look that scary last week on defense, so I think we finally have a Cam Ward “#1 overall pick” performance with over 250 passing yards and two touchdowns passes. He hasn’t achieved this statiscal landmark in his young career, but I believe this is a good spot for it to occur. Let’s celebrate a breakout game for Cam Ward at +210 for 2+ passing TDs!
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