Seltzr Guy Six-Pack: Week 7
While it could be seen as a sign of being haughty, I do want to say the last two weeks have been pretty positive for the Six-Packs. I’ve correctly bet 4/6 for Week 5 and 6 of the NFL Season.
I hope to keep it rolling this week as the season is already going by way to fast. After spending almost two months tracking and researching what bets to place, I am growing more confident in what sort of edges to look for in competition. There isn’t any team that can be labeled as a ‘lock’, but we are seeing the best performances from the best players more often.
Sadly, betting on JSN or Bijan doesn’t yield much of a profit for betting, but I would gladly root for them to keep their incredible pace for the record books. Anyway, here’s the next installment of Seltzr Guy Six-Packs for you to read and follow along!
1) ML - Money line
The Falcons had their best victory of the season on Monday night when they soundly defeated the Buffalo Bills in Mercedes Benz Stadium. The offense was absolutely unstoppable with Bijan Robinson totaling over 230 scrimmage yards by himself to pair with Drake London’s 150 yards receiving. They take their talents across the country to play in San Francisco on Sunday Night Football. It is really hard to not be excited about this team, but their defense really did show up against the reigning MVP. I think that the defense playing so strong will allow the team to steal one on the road as an underdog. The 49ers just lost their elite LB in Fred Warner which doesn’t make me confident they can help keep the #2 rushing offense in the NFL in check. Grabbing the Falcons ML at +118 against the 49ers.
2) O/U - Over / Under
This might surprise some, but I’m going to actually take the over on the Steelers / Bengals game tonight at 45.5 points at -109 odds.The Bengals traded for Joe Flacco, not because he’s a check down master, but rather a “someone’s open” type of QB who isnt afraid of throwing down the field. Jamar Chase has scored a touchdown against Pittsburgh in 5/6 previous matchups. Meanwhile, on the other side of the field, the Steelers offense has looked pretty solid so far this season with Rodgers enjoying his new connection with DK Metcalf. Divisional games usually go under for the AFC North; however, the can also be wild games which is what I predict will happen tonight.
3) Point Spread
Hey, worked out last week taking my Falcons to cover the spread! They ended up winning outright (virtually from the start of the game they never trailed). This week, I am going to take the hopeless Jets as an underdog to the visiting Carolina Panthers. The Jets nearly won last week with negative net passing yards (due to calculating sack yards lost with passing yards completed). The Panthers aparently will be happy to move their elite running back, Rico Dowdle, to the backup position now that Hubbard is back. This would be a mistake in my opinion as they are moving away from what has helped them on this two game win streak. Anyway, do yourself a favor and take advantage of the bad decisions form the Panthers and take the Jets at +2.5 with -112 odds against Carolina on Sunday.
4) Receptions
It’s pretty rare that I want to take a reception line that starts at six, but I think that the Texans will need to keep up with the booming Seahawks offense. I’ll take Nico Collins at 6+ receptions with +103 odds for the second half of the Monday double header. He and Stroud have not dominated as they did in years past, but on the road, against an injuries Seattle secondary, I really like this duo to get it going early and often. So far this season, the Seahawks games have been very fun to watch. I’ll be grabbing a beer to enjoy the final Six-Pack leg of the week.
5) Anytime Touchdown Bet
I’ve hit the anytime TD bet two weeks in a row. From CMC, to Tet McMillan, to now Quinshon Judkins of the Cleveland Browns. He had a really rough week against the Steelers, but he will get a great opportunity to bounce back against the Dolphins on Sunday. Miami is pretty bad against the run after giving up over 130 rushing yards to a combo of Vidal and Haskins for the Chargers. Judkins should have a very nice fantasy day as this game is in Cleveland. Send it in: Judkins anytime TD at -132 odds.
6) Passing TDs
My bet on Caleb Williams to throw over 1.5 TD passes was nearly a hit, but he ended up running in a touchdown on a passing play instead. This week I’m going to take Jayden Daniels with the over 1.5 TD pass category at -120 as he plays the absolute worst defense in the NFL: the Dallas Cowboys. The scoring projections for the game is set at 55.5 which is absurdly high. Nonetheless, I think that the Commanders won’t have any issues scoring some touchdowns with a few of them coming via pass from Daniels.
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